The paris agreement
Header source: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2016/10/04/adoption-paris-agreement/.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC), comprising 195 member nations, each doing their own thing, resolved to attempt to limit “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. The agreement was adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015, and has since been ratified by 147 nations. It commences operation in 2020. Unlike its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol, which sets commitment targets that have legal force, the Paris Agreement, with its emphasis on consensus-building, allows for voluntary and nationally determined targets. Australia's commitment was to reduce greenhouse emissions based on 2005 levels by 26 per cent before 2030 and is likely to be well short of its target.
Nicaragua, with plans to be "90 percent renewable" by 2020, criticised the Agreement for not punishing countries who did not comply. Syria did not sign because of its ongoing civil war. The Trump Administration has since withdrawn from the agreement[1], but that will take three years to implement.
The national pledges made at the Paris conference fall far short of keeping global temperature increases to 1.5 to 2 degrees above pre-industrial times, but even if fully implemented, warming is headed towards 3 degrees or more by the end of this century, because greenhouse gases like CO2 stay in the atmosphere for long periods, and even if we were to achieve the impossible and stop emissions immediately, we’d still be locked into warming from the gases we’ve already poured into the atmosphere.
Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific research project that monitors progress towards the Paris target, says that as at early 2019 only two countries, Morocco and The Gambia, have policies in line with the 1.5 degrees goal, and that warming of about 3.3 degrees is likely on current global policies including Australia's.[2]
Signs that the Paris summit may be finally delivering on its promise
Looking at the matter from a late 2020 perspective, more and more countries (Australia excepted) are committing to set goals to fully decarbonise their economies. Some, such as the EU and the UK, have also lifted their 2030 ambitions ahead of the COP summit scheduled for Glasgow in 2021. China has vowed to make the country carbon-neutral by 2060 and in the process to become a climate leader, (but let's not lose sight of the fact that the country still draws nearly 70% of its power from fossil fuels). The entry of the US back into the fold will only serve to accelerate the process.
Furthermore:
Even the Climate Action Tracker has become more optimistic opining that that these initiatives are putting the Paris goal "within striking distance", always assuming, of course, that governments' actions match their promises. If not, the world is headed for almost 3 degrees of warming by 2100.
[1] “Not such a bad thing. If America had kept a seat at the table, they would have kept trying to water down resolutions, making life very difficult for the other 194 signatories. Now China becomes the world leader on climate change and US economic interests will be hurt”: James Thornton, climate lawyer and activist in Jane Wheatley, “The man most likely to change the world”, Good Weekend, 17 June 2007.
[2] Nicole Hasham,“How do Labor and the Coalition plan to cut carbon emissions?”: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/how-do-labor-and-the-coalition-plan-to-cut-carbon-emissions-20190429-p51ic8.html
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In 2015, the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change (UNFCCC), comprising 195 member nations, each doing their own thing, resolved to attempt to limit “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognising that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. The agreement was adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015, and has since been ratified by 147 nations. It commences operation in 2020. Unlike its predecessor, the Kyoto Protocol, which sets commitment targets that have legal force, the Paris Agreement, with its emphasis on consensus-building, allows for voluntary and nationally determined targets. Australia's commitment was to reduce greenhouse emissions based on 2005 levels by 26 per cent before 2030 and is likely to be well short of its target.
Nicaragua, with plans to be "90 percent renewable" by 2020, criticised the Agreement for not punishing countries who did not comply. Syria did not sign because of its ongoing civil war. The Trump Administration has since withdrawn from the agreement[1], but that will take three years to implement.
The national pledges made at the Paris conference fall far short of keeping global temperature increases to 1.5 to 2 degrees above pre-industrial times, but even if fully implemented, warming is headed towards 3 degrees or more by the end of this century, because greenhouse gases like CO2 stay in the atmosphere for long periods, and even if we were to achieve the impossible and stop emissions immediately, we’d still be locked into warming from the gases we’ve already poured into the atmosphere.
Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific research project that monitors progress towards the Paris target, says that as at early 2019 only two countries, Morocco and The Gambia, have policies in line with the 1.5 degrees goal, and that warming of about 3.3 degrees is likely on current global policies including Australia's.[2]
Signs that the Paris summit may be finally delivering on its promise
Looking at the matter from a late 2020 perspective, more and more countries (Australia excepted) are committing to set goals to fully decarbonise their economies. Some, such as the EU and the UK, have also lifted their 2030 ambitions ahead of the COP summit scheduled for Glasgow in 2021. China has vowed to make the country carbon-neutral by 2060 and in the process to become a climate leader, (but let's not lose sight of the fact that the country still draws nearly 70% of its power from fossil fuels). The entry of the US back into the fold will only serve to accelerate the process.
Furthermore:
- banks, companies and investors are now on notice that they will have to reveal their emissions but also their exposure to the impacts of climate change, against the ever-present background of the systemic failure to identify debt risk that triggered the global financial crisis in 2008.
- all four major Australian Banks have now committed to a net-zero goal and a clear retreat from lending to coal mines.
- billions of dollars are now pouring into renewable energy and electric vehicles and a “low-carbon transformation is no longer science fiction but economic fact”.
- States and cities have now set their own ambitions, often far exceeding their own nations. Even in Australia, all states and territories have a net-zero target by 2050 (the ACT going earlier at 2045), even as the Morrison government refuses to countenance a national one.
Even the Climate Action Tracker has become more optimistic opining that that these initiatives are putting the Paris goal "within striking distance", always assuming, of course, that governments' actions match their promises. If not, the world is headed for almost 3 degrees of warming by 2100.
[1] “Not such a bad thing. If America had kept a seat at the table, they would have kept trying to water down resolutions, making life very difficult for the other 194 signatories. Now China becomes the world leader on climate change and US economic interests will be hurt”: James Thornton, climate lawyer and activist in Jane Wheatley, “The man most likely to change the world”, Good Weekend, 17 June 2007.
[2] Nicole Hasham,“How do Labor and the Coalition plan to cut carbon emissions?”: https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/how-do-labor-and-the-coalition-plan-to-cut-carbon-emissions-20190429-p51ic8.html
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