CLIMATE MODELLING
Climate models are an attempt to encapsulate every piece of science we know about the Earth System, involving atmospheric dynamics, the oceans and sea ice, vegetation, biogeochemistry, atmospheric chemistry, clouds and aerosols, along with all the interconnections and feedbacks involved[1]. They encapsulate various systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighbouring points, as below.[2]
For climate modelling, there may be as many as 70 vertical layers, a horizontal spacing of around 100 kilometres and a time step of around 30 minutes. Over the years, the parallel growth of our knowledge of planetary systems and of computer power has allowed these models to become increasingly powerful and sophisticated.[3]
Climate models are systems of differential equations based on the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry. To “run” a model, scientists divide the planet into a 3-dimensional grid, apply the basic equations, and evaluate the results. Atmospheric models calculate winds, heat transfer, radiation, relative humidity, and surface hydrology within each grid and evaluate interactions with neighboring points.
The development of climate models over the last 30 years shows how the different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate models, as below. There are numerous complexities and uncertainties in these forms of modelling which cannot be covered within a site of this nature, whose objective is introductory in nature[4].
The development of climate models over the last 30 years shows how the different components are first developed separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate models, as below. There are numerous complexities and uncertainties in these forms of modelling which cannot be covered within a site of this nature, whose objective is introductory in nature[4].
[1] Associate Professor Michael Box’s “Our Atmospheric Environment” course, op cit, 5.3.
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_model#/media/File:Global_Climate_Model.png
[3] Box op cit., 5.3.
[4] They are more fully the subject of elaboration in Associate Professor Michael Box’s “Our Atmospheric Environment” course, 5.3 ff.
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