"our credit card is maxed out, there will be hell to pay"
To set the scene for what lies ahead, let's first take a comprehensive look at what lies behind and the position it has brought us to today. In September 2019, a report issued ahead of the UN climate talks scheduled for that month using data compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), found that:
- Average global temperatures between 2015-2019 were on track to be the hottest of any five years on record.
- Global temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1850, and have gone up 0.2C between 2011 and 2015.
- Rather than falling, carbon dioxide grew 2 per cent in 2018, reaching a record high of 37 billion tonnes and locking in further warming.
- Carbon emissions between 2015 and 2019 had grown by 20 per cent compared with the previous five years.
- Sea levels have been rising by an average of 5 millimetres a year in the past five years, compared to 3.2mm a year on average since 1993, with much of the rise attributed to melting glaciers and ice sheets.
- Arctic summer sea ice has declined at a rate of 12 per cent per decade over the past 40 years, with the four lowest values between 2015 and 2019.
- The amount of ice lost from the Antarctic ice sheet increased by a factor of six each year between 1979 and 2017, while glacier loss for 2015-19 is also the highest for any five-year period on record.
- Heatwaves were the deadliest weather hazard in the 2015-19 period, affecting all continents and setting new national temperature records.
- The summer of 2019, which included the hottest ever month on record in July, saw unprecedented wildfires in the Arctic. In June, these were responsible for emitting 50 megatons of carbon dioxide.
Fast forward one year and we find that the WMO 2020 report reveals that average global temperatures between 2015-2019 were on track to be the hottest of any five years on record; that global temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1850, having gone up 0.2C between 2011 and 2015; that rather than falling, carbon dioxide grew 2 per cent in 2018, reaching a record high of 37 billion tonnes and locking in further warming; and carbon emissions between 2015 and 2019 had grown by 20 per cent compared with the previous five years.
The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries lay out national targets to reduce their emissions to limit long-term temperature rise by either 2 degrees Celsius or 1.5C, but even if all countries meet the goals they set themselves, the world will still warm by 2.9C to 3.4C, the report found. The current levels of ambition would need to be tripled to meet the 2C goal and increased five-fold to meet the 1.5C goal — which is technically still possible.
In the years since 2015, Australia has endured three mass coral bleaching events in the Great Barrier Reef, record bushfires and a severe drought, while the world has notched up its hottest five years on record. And 2020 is certain to extend the run.
"This reads like a credit card statement after a five-year-long spending binge," said Dave Reay, chair in carbon management at the University of Edinburgh. "Our global carbon credit is maxed out," he added. "If emissions don't start falling there will be hell to pay", a mantra he repeated after the 2020 report.
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